Bob Smizik’s 9-win prediction
is selling the Steelers short
Everyone is allowed to be wrong once in a while.
This Sept. 5 column by Bob Smizik is one of those times.
Smizik is one of our favorite Steelers writers. He doesn't drink the Kool-aid and is fair in assessing the team's strengths and weaknesses.
Smizik says the Steelers are looking at 9-7 and a first-round exit. The causes of this disappointing season, Smizik writes, are a defense that's too old and a tough schedule. This is a column that's maybe a year ahead of its time.
We tend to be optimists, but we don't drink the Kool-aid either. This team is better than that. Much better than that. Like 12-4 better.
This team has Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. He is in his prime. This is one of the league's great QBs. Few other teams have one. For teams with great QBs, 8-8 is usually the minimum. Ben has never done worse than that, and this is a better team than the 2006 version.
Everybody knows about Ben. What everybody might not realize is that this suddenly looks like a team with a big-time pass rush. Woodley and Timmons can bring it. They will have to learn to read coverage better and avoid catastrophic mistakes such as Woodley watching Maurice Jones-Drew run free for a 40-yard TD pass in last season's playoff game. But they can, and will, sack the quarterback. James Harrison did tail off at the end of the regular season, but needn't apologize to anyone as a rusher. Even James Farrior is capable on the blitz. His age is a concern for next year, not now -- they wouldn't have given him an extension if he looked a step slow in camp. And they have Aaron Smith, a quality pass rusher, back at 100 percent. This team will pressure the quarterback in a way we haven't seen since 2001, maybe earlier.
Smizik expresses "grave doubts" about the age of the defense. Hampton is a two-down player. Guys at his position are effective well into their 30s. Keisel is not a great DE but still a very good athlete with low mileage. Townsend is old, but wins his starting job every year by merit, not default. Ryan Clark, according to PPG reports, is back to 100 percent health and is an excellent player, a free agency steal. They are backed up by two good players who will make a play and would start on many teams, McFadden and Anthony Smith.
Somehow Smizik misses the biggest problem on defense, the erosion of Troy Polamalu's playmaking ability and the fact he's probably soon going to be washed up due to injury. It's a problem, but can be overcome. The linebackers are going to make the plays on this team. The savvy veterans like Hampton and Townsend and Aaron Smith are going to deliver a clutch play here and there too. This is not the unit to be concerned about, at least not this season.
Oddly, while underestimating the defense, Smizik is overrating the offense. He writes, "The Steelers' defense will perform adequately and the offense exceptionally." He singles out Parker. We refer to an earlier post of ours about the critical role of Rashard Mendenhall. The offense will only perform "exceptionally" if there is a legitimate running game. Parker does not move the chains. Mendenhall will have to. The defense handed the offense at least a couple wins last year, against the Cards and Jets, only to see the offense react like the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IX. Passing is not the problem; the team is overloaded with good receivers. Mendenhall bumbled and stumbled and fumbled his way through the preseason. He's got the deer in the headlights look. When he wasn't looking clueless, however, he was actually making people miss. This might be the one place we're drinking the Kool-aid, but somehow we feel like landing a running back of this potential with the 23rd pick means the stars are in alignment for this team, that he won't be a bust, that he will deliver, or at least raise the collective bar at RB.
Like most experts, Smizik is overrating the difficulty of this schedule. Last year, yes, was a very easy schedule, no question. This year it's tougher, yes; insurmountable, hardly. Smizik is ignoring the fact most key games are at home against teams who haven't proved they can win a road game of this caliber.
Smizik writes this:
Here are the teams the Steelers can beat: They'll win five games among their division opponents and add victories against Houston, the Giants, Washington and Tennessee. That will put them in the playoffs where they'll lose in the first round.
Smizik assumes a loss to Philadelphia. Philadelphia is a rapidly aging, unimpressive, decrepit team in serious need of being blown up. A loss here would be a surprise.
Smizik assumes back-to-back home losses to Indianapolis and San Diego. We can't recall the Colts ever winning a game in Pittsburgh, though it must've happened a long time ago. Despite the hype, the Colts have made quick playoff exits in three of the last four years. Their offensive line is in trouble, their feared WR corps is aging rapidly and the running game is suspect. San Diego will be a tough customer. But Shawne Merriman might not be on the field. Last year they declined noticeably under Norv Turner. They also are flying cross-country, which has been a problem for them. The Steelers will beat the Colts and quite possibly the Chargers too. In fact, we will offer Smizik a friendly wager: if the Steelers sweep these games, he has to write something for this site. (If they don't, we'll do whatever he wants.)
Smizik believes the Steelers will get swept by New England in Foxboro and Dallas at Heinz Field. Is Dallas the real deal? It piles up NFC wins but hasn't won a playoff game in years. New England is a tough game, absolutely. Are the Patriots still 16-0 invincible? No, they're not.
Jacksonville outplayed the Steelers in two very close games last year. They are quarterbacked by a mid-round type who goes about 6-0, 250 and can't throw deep. At some point, a team led by Ben Roethlisberger will beat these guys. Nevertheless, we agree with Smizik that we'd call it a loss at this point in time.
This team is going to jump on people like the 2001 squad did. The schedule is tougher than that season, but the quarterback is superior. Barring some really bad injuries, this is a 12-4 team.
It's opening weekend, everyone's 0-0 (well, except the Giants and Skins), and this team has a great QB and quite possibly a great pass rush. That is reason to believe in a great year, not an average one.