Weak drafts: The silent
killers of Super Bowl hopes
Pop quiz time.
Question: What is the reason -- the only reason -- a team does NOT win the Super Bowl?
Answer: Not enough good players.
So, how do you get those players?
You draft them.
That's something the Steelers have largely failed to do during the Kevin Colbert era.
No question, Colbert has pulled off arguably the greatest long-term spree of first-round picks in Steelers history.
Yes. In terms of first-round picks only, better than what Donahoe did in the '90s, definitely.
Arguably, it's better than what Bill Nunn, Art Jr. and Chuck Noll accomplished from 1969 to 1974, only because Joe Greene was 4th overall and Bradshaw was No. 1 overall, and it's hard to bust on those.
Colbert has routinely chosen near the back of the pack, and outdone everyone else.
The problems occur in the second round and beyond. That's where the list of disappointments really starts to pile up. That creates the holes that teams such as today's Steelers are now experiencing.
We're not hitting Colbert with unrealistic expectations. We know that league-wide, few superstars slip out of the first round, and usable players are hard to find on day two of the draft.
Here's the math: Super Bowl windows are not open for very long. It takes a lot of good players who tend to be around age 24 or 25.
The Steelers went from 6-10 in 2003 to world beaters over the next two years largely because of one 23-year-old QB. But he was hardly alone. Look at the quality non-first-round picks who delivered big plays or at a minimum, quality starts: Ward, Porter, Haggans, Aaron Smith, Foote, Taylor, Hope, Randle El, Starks.
Where are the mid-round picks on today's roster?
♦ Limas Sweed and Bruce Davis, (08), both unusable
♦ Matt Spaeth, Daniel Sepulveda, Ryan McBean (07), big-time bust, irrelevant, unusable
♦ Anthony Smith, Willie Reid, Willie Colon, Orien Harris (06), one struggling starter, three colossal busts
♦ Bryant McFadden, Trai Essex, Fred Gibson (05), one good player who doesn't start, another who can't even play on a horrid line, a third colossal bust
How many of those players are capable of starting in the NFL? Barely -- barely -- one. And he has essentially been a backup for four years.
You cannot win Super Bowls this way.
Some will say, why not just get the great picks in the first round, then fill out the roster with free agents. The problem with that is, the NFL free agent market is nowhere near what it was in the early 1990s, when low-budget teams (like the Steelers) regularly had to let stars go, and Dallas and San Francisco bought them all.
If you get one quality free agent a year, such as Kimo Von Oelhoffen or James Farrior or Ryan Clark, you're lucky.
If not for undrafted free agents, Colbert's roster would be a disaster. Does he deserve credit for those? Perhaps, but UFAs are generally invited by regional scouts. If Colbert truly was a genius to get Willie Parker, why didn't he draft him in 2004 instead of the great Drew Caylor and Eric Taylor?
The bottom line is that, on the picks where Colbert is supposed to be knowledgeable, he has busted badly, and on the lottery ticket guesses, he has been phenomenally lucky.
Worst of all, it seems like his first-round luck is running out. The Bears, for example, are getting some excellent play out of Matt Forte, who looks like a natural pro runner. Colbert instead drafted Rashard Mendenhall -- a pick we loved at the time. But there is now serious question that Mendenhall is fit for the NFL. He has great moves, but never ran with any confidence or authority. And in a very small amount of action, is already out for the year.
Let's be fair -- the reason this team is headed to the playoffs is because Colbert drafted Roethlisberger and Woodley and Polamalu, and maybe Lawrence Timmons.
He hasn't drafted enough good players to win the Super Bowl.
And that's his job.